"Muslim threat": facts and figures

In recent years, especially during election campaigns and on social media, leaders from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) have repeatedly claimed that India's Muslim population is growing at an alarming rate, threatening to outnumber Hindus and destabilize the country. For instance, in October 2025, Union Home Minister Amit Shah stated during a rally that the Muslim population has risen to 24.6 percent due to infiltration from Bangladesh and Pakistan, while the Hindu share has dropped, framing it as a direct threat to national security. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has echoed this, alleging "planned efforts" since the 1930s to increase Muslim numbers through conversions, infiltration, and foreign funding, calling for a uniform population policy to maintain "balance." A 2024 working paper from the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council was seized upon by BJP spokespersons like Amit Malviya, who warned on social media that Muslims' share grew 43 percent from 1950 to 2015, suggesting a conspiracy under opposition rule that could leave "no country for Hindus." These assertions, often amplified in Bihar's 2025 assembly polls where Muslims in regions like Seemanchal are labeled "Bangladeshi infiltrators," are not new—they stem from the RSS's founding ideology in 1925, which has long portrayed Muslims as outsiders intent on demographic dominance to undermine Hindu society. But a closer look at census data, fertility trends, independent studies, and even judicial scrutiny reveals these claims as baseless propaganda, designed more to polarize voters than reflect reality.

The core of this narrative rests on selective statistics that ignore context and trends. India's 2011 Census, the most recent full count before the 2021 exercise delayed to 2025-26, shows Muslims at 14.2 percent of the population, or about 172 million, with Hindus at 79.8 percent. Projections for 2025 estimate Muslims at around 200-230 million, still 14-15 percent of India's 1.45 billion total, far from Shah's inflated 24.6 percent figure, which appears to misuse outdated or unadjusted decadal growth rates without accounting for base effects. The EAC paper, titled "Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)," has been widely criticized for fueling this myth. It reports a 7.82 percent decline in Hindus' share (from 84.68 to 78.06 percent) and a 43.15 percent rise in Muslims' (from 9.84 to 14.09 percent), but experts like the Population Foundation of India called these "misreported" and "misleading," noting the paper uses relative percentage changes in shares, not absolute growth, exaggerating shifts in a growing population. As demographer Poonam Muttreja explained, the absolute increase was modest— Muslims added 4.25 percentage points over 65 years— consistent with global trends where minorities grow proportionally in diverse societies, not evidence of a "population jihad." The Hindu's editorial dubbed it "clickbait," pointing out how it ignores fertility convergence and was timed amid 2024 elections to stoke communal fears. Al Jazeera's analysis labeled it a "half-truth" that revives unfounded conspiracy theories, especially since the paper's own data shows India's changes align with tolerant democracies, not authoritarian regimes where majorities suppress minorities.

Digging into fertility rates dismantles the "breeding threat" trope even further. The National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21) records Muslim total fertility at 2.36 children per woman, down from 4.41 in 1992-93— a 46 percent drop— compared to Hindus' 1.94 from 3.3, a 41 percent decline. Muslims have seen the steepest fall among all groups, with Christians at 1.88, Sikhs at 1.61, and Jains at 1.6. A 2024 India Forum study confirms rapid convergence across socio-religious lines, driven by education, urbanization, and women's empowerment, not religion. Pew Research's 2021 report, based on NFHS and census data, notes Muslims' higher baseline stems from socioeconomic factors like lower literacy (68.5 percent vs. Hindus' 73.3 percent) and poverty, but rates are equalizing; by 2050, Muslims are projected at 18 percent (310 million), Hindus at 77 percent (1.2 billion), with overall population stabilizing below replacement level (2.1). Former Election Commissioner S.Y. Quraishi's 2021 book "The Population Myth" crunches decades of data to show Muslims' growth rate slowing faster (from 32.9 percent in 1981-91 to 24.6 in 2001-11) than Hindus' (22.7 to 16.8), debunking polygamy claims— it's rarer among Muslims (1.9 percent) than Hindus (5.8 percent)— and attributing differences to development gaps, not intent. A 2024 IDR article highlights how misinformation ignores regional variations: southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have sub-2.0 TFR across faiths, while northern ones like Bihar lag for all, proving economics, not faith, drives births. Even Bangladesh, often cited as a source of "infiltrators," has a TFR of 2.0, undercutting migration-driven explosion theories.

Assam serves as a prime example where this propaganda takes root, blending border fears with religious bias. Historical census tables from 1911-71 reveal no disproportionate Muslim surge. As detailed in Susanta Krishna Dass's paper "Immigration and Demographic Transformation of Assam, 1891-1981," published in Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 15, No. 19 (May 10, 1980), pp. 850-859, Table 9 in the paper shows Assam's Muslim share rising modestly from 25.09 percent in 1951 to 25.96 in 1971, while Hindus went from 65.09 to 67.88 percent. In 1961-71, Muslims actually declined by 0.74 percentage points, Hindus gained 1.18, and Christians 0.18—contrasting India's national trend where Hindu share fell 0.78 points and Muslim rose 0.50. Table 10 in Dass (1980) compares Assam to India: Muslim growth lagged nationally, with lower variation rates. These figures account for territorial changes—Sylhet's 1947 partition removed a Muslim-majority area, and later splits of Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Mizoram shifted Christian populations—explaining apparent swells without infiltration. Dass's analysis in the paper finds Assam's post-1951 growth outpaced India's due to natural increases, Hindu refugees from East Pakistan, and internal migration, not Bangladeshi Muslims. Post-1947 inflows were mostly Bengali Hindus fleeing violence, not Muslims. Dass tested the assimilation hypothesis: if Muslim infiltrators adopted Assamese, both Muslim and Assamese-speaking shares should spike. They didn't— Assamese speakers grew normally, Muslim rates paralleled Hindus'. "Apprehensions about infiltration... are not supported by facts," he concluded in the paper, corroborated by the tables showing Muslim increases never exceeding Hindus' except in 1911-31's economic migration era. Recent studies echo this: a 2024 Hindu op-ed dispels EAC-triggered myths, noting Assam's adjusted data shows stable ratios, with no evidence of post-1971 floods. South Asia Monitor's 2022 analysis calls the "explosion" a myth, as Muslims' decadal growth has halved since 1981, aligning with national declines.

This distortion extends to the judiciary, where RSS influence has shaped outcomes only to be later corrected. In the 2005 Sarbananda Sonowal v. Union of India (2005 (5) SCC 665) case, the Supreme Court struck down the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, 1983 (IMDT), which placed the burden on accusers to prove illegal migration in Assam's sensitive context. The judgment heavily relied on a 1998 report by Governor S.K. Sinha, an RSS-affiliated ex-army officer who claimed 5,000-10,000 monthly Muslim infiltrators posed "external aggression" under Article 355 of the Constitution of India, equating them to invaders worse than China's. Sinha's report, criticized as "spurious" for lacking data and relying on anecdotes, ignored Dass's findings and exaggerated threats to justify harsh measures. The Court, invoking Sinha uncritically, shifted proof to the accused under the Foreigners Act, 1946, enabling arbitrary detentions. But in October 2024's ruling on challenges to Section 6A of the Citizenship Act, 1955—inserted via the 1985 Assam Accord to grant citizenship to pre-1971 migrants while deporting later ones— a 4:1 Supreme Court bench upheld it [Section 6A of the Citizenship Act 1955, In Re, 2024 SCC OnLine SC 2880, decided on 17-10-2024] dismissing Sonowal's infiltration rhetoric as non-binding "obiter dicta," not core "ratio decidendi." CJI D.Y. Chandrachud's majority opinion emphasized Parliament's Article 11 powers for such exceptions, noting Assam's higher migrant ratio but no proven cultural or demographic overrun. Justice Surya Kant added that post-Accord mechanisms like NRC have addressed concerns without evidence of ongoing aggression. Dissenting Justice Pardiwala worried about unchecked influx, but the verdict exposed Sonowal's flaws: Sinha's bias, unverified claims, and overreach. This reversal highlights how propaganda infiltrates institutions— Sinha's RSS ties, including praise for founders like Hedgewar, tainted his "report," yet it swayed a bench amid rising Hindutva tides.

Ultimately, this RSS-BJP campaign exposes a calculated strategy to "other" Muslims, rooted in the Sangh's 1925 origins amid colonial communalism. Studies like a 2022 Wire fact-check trace it to debunked myths of "population imbalance," revived via fake news despite data showing stability. Policies like CAA-NRC exclude Muslims from citizenship register, codifying bias, while ignoring real issues: India's TFR at 2.0 risks aging crises by 2040, with 200 million stunted children and unemployment demanding focus over division. In Assam, it sparked 1983's Nellie massacre (2,000 dead) and 2012 riots, turning economic migrants into scapegoats. Nationally, it distracts from governance failures, as CFR notes worsening discrimination under BJP. Facts from Pew, NFHS, and courts refute the explosion—growth is natural, converging, and non-threatening. The real aggression? Propaganda that erodes India's secular weave for electoral gains. As Quraishi argues, addressing development closes gaps; fearmongering only widens them.

Table 9 and Table 10 from "Immigration and Demographic Transformation of Assam, 1891-1981," published in Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 15, No. 19 (May 10, 1980), pp. 850-859.

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